The Church of Betting

“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Extreme Events (Part 2)

I hope you have enjoyed the first part of the series “Thinking, Fast and Slow: Lessons for Punters” in which I covered the issue of overconfidence and how to deal with it in a betting context. Today I will continue with the second part of my review of Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow” … Read more“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Extreme Events (Part 2)

“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Beating Overconfidence (Part 1)

Recently I have finished reading Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow” – a book dealing with our common biases and thought flaws that we all as humans are guilty of. Overconfidence, risk-aversion, manipulative framing – you will find it all here. You have certainly come across the title already if you frequent some of … Read more“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Beating Overconfidence (Part 1)

Premier League Draws

Value Betting Strategies – it has been a while since I have last written about the favourite topic of so many of you. It is not because I have lost interest in it – I continue to put small stakes on some of the strategies shared by Cassini in his Green-All-Over blog and occasionally test … Read morePremier League Draws

League of Betting Legends

My previous article dealing with the favourite-longshot bias got a very interesting comment from a reader, who shared some alternative rules to quantify the bias. I recommend everyone interested in the topic to give them a look. They are certainly worth a further analysis and a comprehensive comparison with the rule explained in the article, however … Read moreLeague of Betting Legends

Sports Arbitrage: Getting Started

I figured out it has been long since I have last written about Sports Arbitrage and I wanted to correct that. This week I want to give you some information on getting started with Sports Arbitrage and what are the tools you are going to need. The article will link back to some of my … Read moreSports Arbitrage: Getting Started

Value Betting: Does Home Value Persist?

This weekend is lacking serious action in the major football leagues due to the upcoming World Cup qualifiers during the week (which are not exactly my cup of tea). Therefore I sat down and, after finalizing my tips for next weekend’s league games (which I needed to prepare in advance since I’m going on vacation, … Read moreValue Betting: Does Home Value Persist?

Goal Stats: How The Market Goes Against Intuition

Goal stats Today I wanted to share with you one of the interesting observations I have made when researching European goal data from the last ~20 seasons regarding goal statistics. As some of you might know, the average number of scored goals in the last rounds of the season increases dramatically for just about every … Read moreGoal Stats: How The Market Goes Against Intuition

Rating Models: Goal Ratings

So you already know that you can make a lot of money by finding an edge in the betting markets and that finding an edge in the betting markets is very hard. How does one go about it? There are several ways to approach this problem but in this article I talk about Rating Models and … Read moreRating Models: Goal Ratings

Sports Arbitrage: How to Stay Under the Radar

  How to stay under the bookie’s radar You have probably already read my introductory article to the concept of sports arbitrage. So you already know there is a risk of an arbitrage going wrong and also that bookmakers eventually close arbing accounts. In this article I want to talk a bit more on how … Read moreSports Arbitrage: How to Stay Under the Radar