The Church of Betting

League of Betting Legends

My previous article dealing with the favourite-longshot bias got a very interesting comment from a reader, who shared some alternative rules to quantify the bias. I recommend everyone interested in the topic to give them a look. They are certainly worth a further analysis and a comprehensive comparison with the rule explained in the article, however … Read moreLeague of Betting Legends

Sports Arbitrage: Getting Started

I figured out it has been long since I have last written about Sports Arbitrage and I wanted to correct that. This week I want to give you some information on getting started with Sports Arbitrage and what are the tools you are going to need. The article will link back to some of my … Read moreSports Arbitrage: Getting Started

Value Betting: Does Home Value Persist?

This weekend is lacking serious action in the major football leagues due to the upcoming World Cup qualifiers during the week (which are not exactly my cup of tea). Therefore I sat down and, after finalizing my tips for next weekend’s league games (which I needed to prepare in advance since I’m going on vacation, … Read moreValue Betting: Does Home Value Persist?

Goal Stats: How The Market Goes Against Intuition

Goal stats Today I wanted to share with you one of the interesting observations I have made when researching European goal data from the last ~20 seasons regarding goal statistics. As some of you might know, the average number of scored goals in the last rounds of the season increases dramatically for just about every … Read moreGoal Stats: How The Market Goes Against Intuition

Rating Models: Goal Ratings

So you already know that you can make a lot of money by finding an edge in the betting markets and that finding an edge in the betting markets is very hard. How does one go about it? There are several ways to approach this problem but in this article I talk about Rating Models and … Read moreRating Models: Goal Ratings

Sports Arbitrage: How to Stay Under the Radar

  How to stay under the bookie’s radar You have probably already read my introductory article to the concept of sports arbitrage. So you already know there is a risk of an arbitrage going wrong and also that bookmakers eventually close arbing accounts. In this article I want to talk a bit more on how … Read moreSports Arbitrage: How to Stay Under the Radar

Introduction to Sports Trading

  Sports Trading After having written two articles about probably the most widely used strategies for making a profit in the betting markets – Sports Arbitrage and Value Betting – I would like to turn to a third one, namely, Sports Trading. Now, it might not be fully correct to refer to Sports Trading as a … Read moreIntroduction to Sports Trading

Profitable Sports Betting: The ways of the samurai

After a long break from my opening post, I would like to continue with introducing you to the different approaches to profitable sports betting and their basics. In a series of posts I will go through the three main Betting Strategies: Sports Arbitrage, Value Betting and Sports Trading, in that order. I might write an … Read moreProfitable Sports Betting: The ways of the samurai