My previous article dealing with the favourite-longshot bias got a very interesting comment from a reader, who shared some alternative rules to quantify the bias. I recommend everyone interested in the topic to give them a look. They are certainly worth a further analysis and a comprehensive comparison with the rule explained in the article, however … Read moreLeague of Betting Legends
The question whether it wouldn’t be better to skip hedging in Sports Arbitrage has been asked before. Covering your arb in a sharp book is a sort of an insurance premium. You sacrifice the money you are going to lose in the sharp books in order to have a stable and predictable profit from each … Read moreArbing without a Hedge: The Insanity of Betting Variance
As promised in my last article, I will do a short mid-season review of some home and away betting strategies I have discovered at the beginning of this season in European football leagues. If you recall my two articles on home and away value, I have found out that for the Spanish, Italian and German leagues, … Read moreHome and Away Value in European Leagues (Mid-Season Review)
In my last article where I’ve interviewed Erik from SoccerBetBlog on how he gets to figure out Estonian football games I promised to give you an article outlining a simple method to evaluate the performance of tipsters, based only on a few simple to obtain metrics. It is all about a statistical method called the … Read moreEvaluating Tipsters – T-test
I have since only written one article about tipsters – Cheap Tipster Tricks – trying to show you all the nonsense and deceit so common in the tipster business. I thought it is a bit unfair to focus only on the one side of the story so today I would like to introduce you one of … Read moreThe Good Tipsters
Betting Exchanges are a necessary tool in the arsenal of every bettor. You would need them not only for trading but also for arbitrage to expand your variability on the sharp side and for value betting to be able to get the best odds on the market. However not all exchanges are made equal and you … Read moreBetting Exchanges Review
Odds shopping and the need for bookmaker access In this article I will write about utilizing betting brokers to make use of the best odds available on the market. I have written before about the importance of securing the best odds when pursuing any betting strategy aka Odds Shopping. This is a point very often neglected … Read moreOdds Shopping: Betting Brokers
You have probably already read my analysis on the topic ‘Does Home Value Persist’. In it I have found out that for 6 top European leagues on average if backing a team at home was a profitable strategy in the previous season it will probably remain profitable in this one as well. This effect was … Read moreDoes Away Value Persist?
This weekend is lacking serious action in the major football leagues due to the upcoming World Cup qualifiers during the week (which are not exactly my cup of tea). Therefore I sat down and, after finalizing my tips for next weekend’s league games (which I needed to prepare in advance since I’m going on vacation, … Read moreValue Betting: Does Home Value Persist?
So you already know that you can make a lot of money by finding an edge in the betting markets and that finding an edge in the betting markets is very hard. How does one go about it? There are several ways to approach this problem but in this article I talk about Rating Models and … Read moreRating Models: Goal Ratings