Hello and Happy New Year to everyone! You must have noticed my slow to non-existing pace of publishing articles on this blog recently. With the World Cup and the hot summer around, I must admit there were better things to do than writing for my blog. The start of the football season didn’t make things … Read moreBeating the racetrack: How to build the perfect model
And here comes the fourth and last article of the series “Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). Today we are going to dive into the successful punter’s habits. It has surely taken a while to get it all out, so my apologies go to anyone who was wishing … Read more“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Successful Punter’s Habits (Part 4)
I hope you have enjoyed the first part of the series “Thinking, Fast and Slow: Lessons for Punters” in which I covered the issue of overconfidence and how to deal with it in a betting context. Today I will continue with the second part of my review of Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow” … Read more“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Extreme Events (Part 2)
Recently I have finished reading Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow” – a book dealing with our common biases and thought flaws that we all as humans are guilty of. Overconfidence, risk-aversion, manipulative framing – you will find it all here. You have certainly come across the title already if you frequent some of … Read more“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Beating Overconfidence (Part 1)
My last article – Premier League Draws – got quite some hits by this blog’s standard – mostly because it got the interest of David Sumpter, the author of the book Soccermatics: Mathematical Adventures in the Beautiful Game I was commenting on in the article. Mr Sumpter’s retweet brought with it a hit count I am not … Read moreBetSuite Pro Review
Value Betting Strategies – it has been a while since I have last written about the favourite topic of so many of you. It is not because I have lost interest in it – I continue to put small stakes on some of the strategies shared by Cassini in his Green-All-Over blog and occasionally test … Read morePremier League Draws
In 2017 Bitcoin has taken the world by storm. During the last year the leading crypto currency has appreciated nearly tenfold as measured in most major currencies. The ones who bought some of the precious crypto coins early enough have made a killing. Stories made the rounds about unassuming crypto enthusiasts who bought/mined a … Read moreCrypto Coin Betting
My previous article dealing with the favourite-longshot bias got a very interesting comment from a reader, who shared some alternative rules to quantify the bias. I recommend everyone interested in the topic to give them a look. They are certainly worth a further analysis and a comprehensive comparison with the rule explained in the article, however … Read moreLeague of Betting Legends
The question whether it wouldn’t be better to skip hedging in Sports Arbitrage has been asked before. Covering your arb in a sharp book is a sort of an insurance premium. You sacrifice the money you are going to lose in the sharp books in order to have a stable and predictable profit from each … Read moreArbing without a Hedge: The Insanity of Betting Variance
As promised in my last article, I will do a short mid-season review of some home and away betting strategies I have discovered at the beginning of this season in European football leagues. If you recall my two articles on home and away value, I have found out that for the Spanish, Italian and German leagues, … Read moreHome and Away Value in European Leagues (Mid-Season Review)
