The Church of Betting

How to Build a Rating Model

How to Build a Rating Model

So far, rating models have not received the covering they deserve in my blog. This is mostly due to the fact that I until now I have put more emphasis ...
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Beating the racetrack: How Bill Benter built the perfect model

Beating the racetrack: How Bill Benter built the perfect model

Hello and Happy New Year to everyone! You must have noticed my slow to non-existing pace of publishing articles on this blog recently. With the World Cup and the hot ...
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"Thinking, Fast and Slow": Lessons for Punters - Extreme Events (Part 2)

“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Extreme Events (Part 2)

I hope you have enjoyed the first part of the series “Thinking, Fast and Slow: Lessons for Punters” in which I covered the issue of overconfidence and how to deal ...
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“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Beating Overconfidence (Part 1)

“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Beating Overconfidence (Part 1)

Recently I have finished reading Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow” – a book dealing with our common biases and thought flaws that we all as humans are guilty ...
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BetSuite Pro Review

BetSuite Pro Review

My last article - Premier League Draws - got quite some hits by this blog’s standard - mostly because it got the interest of David Sumpter, the author of the ...
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Premier League Draws

Premier League Draws

Value Betting Strategies - it has been a while since I have last written about the favourite topic of so many of you. It is not because I have lost ...
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The Favourite-Longshot Bias

The Favourite-Longshot Bias

It has been a long time since I have last posted so I apologize to anyone who was looking for new material only to leave the page disappointed. I have ...
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Overround Decay

Overround Decay

A few days ago I read a post by Cassini from green-all-over about the decreasing bookmaker overrounds in recent years. I remember noticing the same trend some time ago and ...
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Trademate Sports Review

Trademate Sports Review

I am sure some of you remember that a long time ago I promised you a review of a betting product known as Trademate Sports. Trademate Sports is a Technical Value Betting ...
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Statistics

Arbing without a Hedge: The Insanity of Betting Variance

The question whether it wouldn’t be better to skip hedging in Sports Arbitrage has been asked before. Covering your arb in a sharp book is a sort of an insurance ...
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