The Church of Betting

“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Extreme Events (Part 2)

I hope you have enjoyed the first part of the series “Thinking, Fast and Slow: Lessons for Punters” in which I covered the issue of overconfidence and how to deal with it in a betting context. Today I will continue with the second part of my review of Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow” … Read more“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Extreme Events (Part 2)

“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Beating Overconfidence (Part 1)

Recently I have finished reading Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow” – a book dealing with our common biases and thought flaws that we all as humans are guilty of. Overconfidence, risk-aversion, manipulative framing – you will find it all here. You have certainly come across the title already if you frequent some of … Read more“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Beating Overconfidence (Part 1)

BetSuite Pro Review

My last article – Premier League Draws – got quite some hits by this blog’s standard – mostly because it got the interest of David Sumpter, the author of the book Soccermatics: Mathematical Adventures in the Beautiful Game I was commenting on in the article. Mr Sumpter’s retweet brought with it a hit count I am not … Read moreBetSuite Pro Review

Premier League Draws

Value Betting Strategies – it has been a while since I have last written about the favourite topic of so many of you. It is not because I have lost interest in it – I continue to put small stakes on some of the strategies shared by Cassini in his Green-All-Over blog and occasionally test … Read morePremier League Draws

Review of Trademate (revised)

I am sure some of you remember that a long time ago I promised you a review of a betting product known as Trademate. The Trademate team has given me access to the product and I have been tirelessly gathering tones of betting data ever since. Having collected a record of more than 11,500 resolved bets I decided … Read moreReview of Trademate (revised)

Arbing without a Hedge: The Insanity of Betting Variance

The question whether it wouldn’t be better to skip hedging in Sports Arbitrage has been asked before. Covering your arb in a sharp book is a sort of an insurance premium. You sacrifice the money you are going to lose in the sharp books in order to have a stable and predictable profit from each … Read moreArbing without a Hedge: The Insanity of Betting Variance

Home and Away Value in European Leagues (Mid-Season Review)

As promised in my last article, I will do a short mid-season  review of some home and away betting strategies I have discovered at the beginning of this season in European football leagues. If you recall my two articles on home and away value, I have found out that for the Spanish, Italian and German leagues, … Read moreHome and Away Value in European Leagues (Mid-Season Review)

Evaluating Tipsters – T-test

In my last article where I’ve interviewed Erik from SoccerBetBlog on how he gets to figure out Estonian football games I promised to give you an article outlining a simple method to evaluate the performance of tipsters, based only on a few simple to obtain metrics. It is all about a statistical method called the … Read moreEvaluating Tipsters – T-test