Value Betting Strategies – it has been a while since I have last written about the favourite topic of so many of you. It is not because I have lost interest in it – I continue to put small stakes on some of the strategies shared by Cassini in his Green-All-Over blog and occasionally test … Read morePremier League Draws
It has been a long time since I have last posted so I apologize to anyone who was looking for new material only to leave the page disappointed. I have recently started a new job, which has lowered the amount of time I can dedicate to my blog. Adding to the fact that I still try to bet … Read moreThe Favourite-Longshot Bias
A few days ago I read a post by Cassini from green-all-over about the decreasing bookmaker overrounds in recent years. I remember noticing the same trend some time ago and since I think this is an interesting topic for most punters I decided to do a detailed article about it. So today I will give … Read moreOverround Decay
As promised in my last article, I will do a short mid-season review of some home and away betting strategies I have discovered at the beginning of this season in European football leagues. If you recall my two articles on home and away value, I have found out that for the Spanish, Italian and German leagues, … Read moreHome and Away Value in European Leagues (Mid-Season Review)
You have probably already read my analysis on the topic ‘Does Home Value Persist’. In it I have found out that for 6 top European leagues on average if backing a team at home was a profitable strategy in the previous season it will probably remain profitable in this one as well. This effect was … Read moreDoes Away Value Persist?
This weekend is lacking serious action in the major football leagues due to the upcoming World Cup qualifiers during the week (which are not exactly my cup of tea). Therefore I sat down and, after finalizing my tips for next weekend’s league games (which I needed to prepare in advance since I’m going on vacation, … Read moreValue Betting: Does Home Value Persist?
Goal stats Today I wanted to share with you one of the interesting observations I have made when researching European goal data from the last ~20 seasons regarding goal statistics. As some of you might know, the average number of scored goals in the last rounds of the season increases dramatically for just about every … Read moreGoal Stats: How The Market Goes Against Intuition
So you already know that you can make a lot of money by finding an edge in the betting markets and that finding an edge in the betting markets is very hard. How does one go about it? There are several ways to approach this problem but in this article I talk about Rating Models and … Read moreRating Models: Goal Ratings