The Church of Betting

"Thinking, Fast and Slow": Lessons for Punters - Extreme Events (Part 2)

“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Extreme Events (Part 2)

I hope you have enjoyed the first part of the series “Thinking, Fast and Slow: Lessons for Punters” in which I covered the issue of overconfidence and how to deal ...
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“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Beating Overconfidence (Part 1)

“Thinking, Fast and Slow”: Lessons for Punters – Beating Overconfidence (Part 1)

Recently I have finished reading Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow” – a book dealing with our common biases and thought flaws that we all as humans are guilty ...
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BetSuite Pro Review

BetSuite Pro Review

My last article - Premier League Draws - got quite some hits by this blog’s standard - mostly because it got the interest of David Sumpter, the author of the ...
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Premier League Draws

Premier League Draws

Value Betting Strategies - it has been a while since I have last written about the favourite topic of so many of you. It is not because I have lost ...
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The Favourite-Longshot Bias

The Favourite-Longshot Bias

It has been a long time since I have last posted so I apologize to anyone who was looking for new material only to leave the page disappointed. I have ...
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Overround Decay

Overround Decay

A few days ago I read a post by Cassini from green-all-over about the decreasing bookmaker overrounds in recent years. I remember noticing the same trend some time ago and ...
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Home and Away Value in European Leagues (Mid-Season Review)

Home and Away Value in European Leagues (Mid-Season Review)

As promised in my last article, I will do a short mid-season review of some home and away betting strategies I have discovered at the beginning of this season in ...
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Does Away Value Persist?

Does Away Value Persist?

You have probably already read my analysis on the topic ‘Does Home Value Persist’. In it I have found out that for 6 top European leagues on average if backing ...
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Home Value in Football

Home Value in Football

This weekend is lacking serious action in the major football leagues due to the upcoming World Cup qualifiers during the week (which are not exactly my cup of tea). Therefore ...
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Goal Stats: Goals In The Ending Rounds

Goal Stats: Goals In The Ending Rounds

With my last article I introduced the concept of Goal Rating Models. I showed you that a very simplistic rating model won't guarantee you profit. However, tweeking and adjusting your ...
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