The Church of Betting

Arbitrage betting: Middles

I had many of my accounts restricted due to arbitrage betting during the years. Luckily, I have found out a live betting strategy to utilize those restricted accounts to the maximum and made some extra money out of them even after being restricted to 10-15 EUR profit per bet. A low risk-strategy (perhaps comparable to … Read moreArbitrage betting: Middles

Does Away Value Persist?

You have probably already read my analysis on the topic ‘Does Home Value Persist’. In it I have found out that for 6 top European leagues on average if backing a team at home was a profitable strategy in the previous season it will probably remain profitable in this one as well. This effect was … Read moreDoes Away Value Persist?

Value Betting: Does Home Value Persist?

This weekend is lacking serious action in the major football leagues due to the upcoming World Cup qualifiers during the week (which are not exactly my cup of tea). Therefore I sat down and, after finalizing my tips for next weekend’s league games (which I needed to prepare in advance since I’m going on vacation, … Read moreValue Betting: Does Home Value Persist?

Goal Stats: How The Market Goes Against Intuition

Goal stats Today I wanted to share with you one of the interesting observations I have made when researching European goal data from the last ~20 seasons regarding goal statistics. As some of you might know, the average number of scored goals in the last rounds of the season increases dramatically for just about every … Read moreGoal Stats: How The Market Goes Against Intuition

Rating Models: Goal Ratings

So you already know that you can make a lot of money by finding an edge in the betting markets and that finding an edge in the betting markets is very hard. How does one go about it? There are several ways to approach this problem but in this article I talk about Rating Models and … Read moreRating Models: Goal Ratings

Value Betting: The Practice & Odds Shopping

This article is the second part of my previous article on Value Betting: The Theory. Check it up if you haven’t yet. At the end of the last article I promised that if you beat the overround you could, at least in theory, be a rich man. Now let’s talk about what it takes to beat … Read moreValue Betting: The Practice & Odds Shopping