The Church of Betting

ValueBetting by RebelBetting

ValueBetting by RebelBetting

Many of you follow or have followed a Technical Value Betting strategy throughout the years. If that applies to you, you understand the importance of a good value betting software. You are perhaps familiar with the tools you can choose from, many of which I have reviewed on this website. Since several months this tool set has expanded with yet another new option – the ValueBetting tool by RebelBetting – which I am going to review today.

The Value Betting tool offers a lot of unique features compared to the older RebelBetting products. These turn out to be quite helpful in placing and recording value bets. Furthermore, all readers of the Church of Betting are offered a generous promotion from the RebelBetting team – a free first month of subscription – which is yet another incentive to pay closer attention to the product. So how does ValueBetting by RebelBetting perform in test? Let’s dive in and see.

ValueBetting by RebelBetting

RebelBetting have been one of the biggest players in the arbing field and probably one of the first ones too. I have already written in detail about their arbing software. As a few others, RebelBetting have jumped on the value betting trend and created their own technical value betting product. If you are unfamiliar with the concept of technical value betting (a.k.a. Steam Chasing) you can check my article on the subject.

It only made sense for RebelBetting to enter the value betting space. For a technical value betting software you basically need the same input data as for an arbing one. Indeed, you can even value bet using an arbing software. That grants you the added benefit that you can hedge away part of your risk for a small profit. In a sense, a technical value betting software is just an arbing software showing only the soft side of the arbs. So let us start with answering the question, why do you need RebelBetting value betting when you can simply purchase the arbing tool?

Web Interface

ValueBetting by RebelBetting is the first product of the company that comes with a web version. This comes as an additional alternative to the familiar desktop interface. I wouldn’t write too much about the desktop version. I have already covered it in the review of RebelBetting’s arbing tool and it looks similar here. The web version of the Value Betting tool is a new and fresh look, which you might find interesting. Here is a short video that should give you an idea for how it feels navigating the software:

In fact, I have used only the web version for the review. I will probably only use that one in the future too. I personally think adding a web interface is a major improvement, since it offers some significant advantages over desktop:

Lightweight 

After having used both the desktop version and the web version, I find it significantly easier and faster to navigate through the web version. Also, I think the redirection to the bookmaker’s website for placing the bet is also quite faster on web. Since in Value Betting speed is essential, to me that is a major selling point of the product

Mobile responsive

What’s more, the web version of ValueBetting by RebelBetting is adapted to mobile devices. Indeed, the platform runs smoothly on mobile, which is helpful for value betting. Arbing on mobile is indeed quite difficult, due to the fact that you need to bet on two platforms and document both bets afterwards. However Value Betting is a whole different story. Here you only place one bet and documentation is made very easy as you will see later. In fact, I currently place all of my value bets on mobile. Therefore, having a screening tool that works on mobile for me is quite an upgrade.

Competitive Pricing

A second reason to go for the Value Betting tool instead of the arbing one is the competitive pricing. ValueBetting by RebelBetting currently sells at €69/month for a monthly subscription and €52/month for a semiannual one. This equates to a discount of 25% compared to monthly:

ValueBetting by Rebel Betting: Price

The arbing product on the other hand will cost you €129/month for a monthly subscription and €97/month for a semiannual one. This is almost half the price.

Looking at similar competitor products, Trademate Sports sells at €120/month for the core version and BetBurger Value Betting sells at €59.99/month. This puts ValueBetting by RebelBetting at the lowest price range. Considering the offered functionalities, it is safe to say that the price tag is quite generous.

First month for free

This is a unique benefit that only applies to users who subscribe through the Church of Betting. If you join through an affiliate link on this page, you get your first month for free. You get a value of €69 with no effort required and virtually zero risk for you. You can just try the product and unsubscribe before you are billed for the second month. 

ValueBetting by RebelBetting: Profit guarantee

There are some further benefits as far as pricing is concerned. ValueBetting by RebelBetting comes with a profit guarantee for the first month. If you make no profit in your first month using the service (under the conditions listed below), you get the second month subscription free of charge.

The conditions:

  • Place at least 500 bets from ValueBetting by RebelBetting, to reduce variance
  • Log and grade the bets with the log book or the Bet Tracker
  • Copy the bet details to the log book by using the “Confirm placed bet” button
  • Use the built-in stake sizing and max-bet strategy with Kelly <= 30% and max stake <= 1%
  • Net profit less than €0 in your first month subscribed

In order to place 500 bets, you will need to place an average of 15-20 bets a day. This will require some discipline and a few good bookmaker accounts. All in all, in most cases it shouldn’t be a problem. No profit after 500 bets is unlikely, but possible (especially if you take any positive edge). Therefore, the profit guarantee offers you a useful insurance for the case that you get very unlucky in your first month of using the product.

That being said, let me say a few words about the profitability of the tips the software is producing.

Is ValueBetting by RebelBetting profitable?

In the long run, ValueBetting by RebelBetting will make you money. The strategy is simple, tried and tested. Technical Value Betting / Steam Chasing is probably the most accessible way to make money from sports betting. I have written a lot about it in the past, so I won’t do it again here. If you are unfamiliar with the basics, just refer to my Ultimate Guide on Value Betting as well as the articles on the Closing Line theory and Mixing Arbitrage and Value Betting. Finally, don’t forget to account for the variance that is typical for a Technical Value Betting strategy as the one offered by the tool.

The blog of RebelBetting covers very similar topics. The team has been quite active in writing lately, so you can use it as an additional informational resource.

Possible turnover

As all other profitable strategies executed in soft books, Technical Value Betting gets you limited. How much turnover you can make with all your accounts depends a lot on how many accounts you have, in which bookmakers, and from which country you bet. So it is hard to give a specific answer to that question. For a UK resident with access to all large bookmakers, a total turnover between GBP 100k and GBP 200k should be possible.  

Limits aside, your daily turnover would again depend on the bookmakers at your disposal. The day of the week matters as well, with Friday, Saturday and Sunday being better than the rest of the week. Here is how it looks like on a normal Saturday morning with a few key bookmakers turned on:

ValueBetting by Rebel Betting: Value Bet Stream

With around 20 available value bets at a time it shouldn’t be a problem to completely turnover a moderately sized bank within a day.

It terms of the completeness of the results, I compared the tool with a similar product from a different company and consistently saw the same bets being delivered from both sources.

Staking

Similarly to other Value Betting software products (see Trademate Sports), RebelBetting Value Betting calculates the proper Kelly stake based on the calculated edge of the bet. RebelBetting advises to use fractional Kelly and provides the necessary filter to do so.

Properly calculating the Kelly stake is not an easy task and is also crucial to optimizing your long-term ROI from Technical Value Betting. There are many things at play by the calculation and you never know which ones are considered by the software in the stake calculation and how accurately. This is actually the reason why I normally use an arbing software to do my Value Betting. Here is a list of things that have influence on the edge of your bet in the soft book when comparing with a sharp book / exchange:

Factors relevant for staking

  • Limit on the opposite side: Lower limit (in a sharp book) or liquidity (on an exchange) means more uncertainty about the edge and possibly a lower average edge on the value bet in the soft book
  • Favourite-longshot bias: The margin of the sharp bookmaker is important for calculating the true odds, which in turn are necessary for determining the edge. The margin is not attributed to all outcomes proportionally. Longer odds carry a larger part of the margin than shorter ones. This must be accounted for in the calculation, with the proper formula.
  • Time before event: The more time before the event starts, the more time there is for the value of your bet to change come game time. 

While the first and third points are difficult to account for quantitatively, the second one is not. However, in my experience most software providers don’t go into too much detail in this topic. Neverthelress, I asked the RebelBetting team about their methodology for the identification of value bets and for the edge/Kelly stake calculation.

Value calculation methodology

Reporting on the value calculation methodology for such services is always a bit tricky. The value calculation methodology is extremely important for the users of the tool. On the other hand, it is often considered a trade secret by the company. However, the RebelBetting team has shared enough details to make an informed assessment.

Favourite-longshot bias

As far as the favourite-longshot bias is concerned, the tool seems to apply a high standard. I was assured the favorite-longshot bias is fully and properly taken account for. The calculation seems to be in line with all publicly available evidence concerning the correct margin attribution.

Benchmark books/exchanges

Currently, RebelBetting appears to use an (undisclosed) group of sharp bookmakers as a benchmark:

By evaluating a number of “sharp” bookmakers odds, taking betting bias and market efficiency into account, our servers can determine what the true odds are for any given match.

RebelBetting

Furthermore, RebelBetting seems to be in the process of evaluating the viability of Betfair as a benchmark. The early results seem promissing, so it is very likely, that Betfair will be added to the benchmark in a later version. For now it is sharp bookmakers only. While their names are not being published, we could probably figure them out.

ValueBetting by RebelBetting: Bet Tracker

For their Value Betting tool RebelBetting have introduced the Bet Tracker. With the Bet Tracker you have an easy way to record, grade and analyse your bets. It is easy to use – after you place a value bet you just click the big “Log” button and your bet is in the Tracker. The Tracker then automatically grades your bet after the event is over. It looks like this:

BetTracker

Needless to say, it would still be a good idea to compare with the bookmaker. Different rules or manual errors can lead to a discrepancy between your records in the Tracker and your bookmaker account. Nevertheless the Tracker surely saves quite some time as you wouldn’t have to record and settle your bets manually anymore.

An Excel report of the single bets from the Tracker is currently not possible. The team plans to add this feature in a future release.

ValueBetting by RebelBetting: Reports

Your bets from the Tracker can also be visualized in a nice P&L graph that follows your actual profit and loss as well as your expected one based on the EV calculated by the tool:

ValueBetting by Rebel Betting: Reports

Furthermore, you get a table with your number of bets, turnover, profit and yield per bookmaker. You can also generate a breakdown of your profits by sport or market type. The option to track your overall profit, yield and number of bets is helpful for analyzing your betting action. It can also give you a clear overview should you wish to use the Profit Guarantee mentioned above.

You can extract all those reports in .csv, .xlsx or .json format and save them locally. 

Summary

To summarize, ValueBetting by RebelBetting is an easy to use, yet very functional Value Betting product that gives you everything you need for a very decent price. The main advantages of the product are the following:

  1. Competitive Pricing: As I have already written above, RebelBetting Value Betting gives you great value for the money. You get all the important functionalities at a very reasonable price. Using the free first month offer from this article combined with the first month profit guarantee offered by RebelBetting, the product turns into a real bargain
  2. Web interface: This is already the standard for most software tools in the Value Betting space. However it is great news that RebelBetting also offer that functionality. I find it makes the whole process a lot more intuitive and easy
  3. Mobile responsiveness: This is a strong selling point. As I am often on the road I am turning quite some money over using my phone alone. In other tools, I find it a bit irritating that I cannot navigate the page with arbs on mobile quite as easily as on desktop. The fact that with RebelBetting Value Betting mobile is part of the package for me is a great thing.
  4. Bet Tracker: Straightforward and highly functional. The Bet Tracker function saves quite some time. It also grades your bets automatically and allows you to export your results or analyze them directly in the tool.

Conclusion

All in all, after having spent around a month placing bets and analyzing the tool, I struggle to find any important functionality necessary for value betting that the tool is not offering. ValueBetting by RebelBetting has everything you need, is very easy to use and comes at a very affordable price. If you subscribe from this page you will also receive the first month for free. You are free to unsubscribe before the second month starts if you don’t like the product. The profit guarantee will grant you the second month for free as well in the unlikely event that you don’t make any profit in the first one. All things considered it is quite a low-risk purchase and a great way to give Technical Value Betting a try if you haven’t done so so far.

That is all to the ValueBetting tool by RebelBetting – a great piece of software if you ever wish to make some money with Technical Value Betting. If you have any questions or comments about the service, just drop them in the comment section below and I will reply as soon as possible. Thanks for reading and see you around!

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