The Church of Betting

Does Away Value Persist?

You have probably already read my analysis on the topic ‘Does Home Value Persist’. In it I have found out that for 6 top European leagues on average if backing a team at home was a profitable strategy in the previous season it will probably remain profitable in this one as well. This effect was most profound for the Italian, Spanish and German leagues. As I mentioned back then I have made the same analysis for a draw strategy where unfortunately I could not find anything of interest. So finally I decided to finish off with an analysis of away strategies and will present you my findings in this article and whether the findings can be implemented in a betting strategy.

Country Analysis

I tested a strategy backing teams that had delivered at least 1, 2, … 10+ points of profit in the last season when backing their away wins with level stakes of 1, similarly to the analysis of home value. The results look as follows:

image-1

This graph is certainly less telling then the one for home value. It is hard to spot a general trend among all the countries. In fact, all countries except from Scotland perform rather disappointingly. Here is what it looks like when the averages (backing all away wins in the league this season) were subtracted to derive the strategy premium:

image-2

The results are indecisive at best. The trend seems good for Scotland, France and Germany (to a point), however for the rest of the countries it goes the other way. Moreover, even a good premium is not worth much when the average away value is strongly negative, as it is usually the case. At this point I was on the edge of discarding the whole idea for an away strategy altogether and moving on to the next one. However the results for Scotland intrigued me so I decided to dig a bit deeper into that.

Away Value in Scotland

Since the average for blindly backing the away was the highest from all tested leagues and on top of that the premium of backing strong away teams was more or less in line with the relative strength of the team, maybe it would be possible to find something of value there. So I decided to start by checking whether this high average away return for Scotland of 0.64 was a result from some past outliers or signifies some general tendency for away wins in the Scottish leagues. Here is what a betting strategy of backing all away wins at best coefficients possible in all Scottish leagues would have return in each of the past 10 seasons:

Scotland (away)
SeasonProfit
2015/16
1.33
2014/151.22
2013/140.40
2012/131.86
2011/120.71
2010/110.60
2009/100.17
2008/090.73
2007/08-0.74
2006/071.21
2005/06-0.41

In fact it seems the Scottish leagues have always benefited the away betting strategies and the tendency has in fact grown stronger in the last years. Now that looks interesting. If a general away betting strategy delivers a profit anyway and you could boosted this profit further by following teams with strong recent away performance the results might be decent. So I decided to run a test for season 2016/17 backing away all teams with positive away performance in season 2015/16 for all Scottish leagues. Furthermore, I decided that I will vary the stakes according to the size of the profit in season 2015/16 for the respective team. Here is what the results look like:

 with model (best odds)with model (average odds)all away wins (best odds)all away wins (average odds)
turnover91.0999.06125125
profit2.90-5.06-7.74-17.22
yield3.19%-5.11%-6.19%-13.78%

Apparently so far the general away betting strategy in Scotland for this season is in the red, which is rather surprising when compared with previous seasons. Still, I don’t see this as a reason for concern since we are yet in the beginning of the season so it wouldn’t be surprising if we see an alignment to the general trend later.

The Outperformers

However, what I find more interesting is that following the betting strategy of backing only teams with strong away record from the previous season does indeed seem to deliver a premium. As a next step I decided to try the results when only backing the teams delivering a profit more than 1, 2, …, 10+ to see how do the results compare.

 profit yield turnover 
best oddsaverage oddsbest oddsaverage oddsbest oddsaverage odds
12.90
-5.06
3.19%
-5.11%
91.09
99.06
22.98
-4.93
3.31%
-5.04%
90.0297.93
31.53
-5.93
1.83%
-6.52%
83.4790.92
4-0.37
-7.35
-0.48%
-8.81%
76.3783.34
56.31
1.41
10.95%
2.25%
57.6862.59
615.07
12.10
38.72%
28.88%
38.9341.89
714.57
12.18
43.60%
34.00%
33.4235.82
814.57
12.18
43.60%
34.00%
33.4235.82
99.53
7.63
31.27%
23.56%
9.527.62
10+9.53
7.63
31.27%
23.56%
9.527.62

As you see, at least on paper sticking to the strongest away teams delivers the best results, both as absolute profits and in terms of yield. I really like those results and will certainly keep an eye on the performance of this betting strategy during the season. I am not too quick to start betting on it with real money as the sample is still quite small, but I believe I might be up to something here. So if the betting strategy continues to deliver, expect an update article on it in the coming months, as well as me starting to put my money where my mouth is.

Until then, I am preparing another article on general league stats, which you might find useful for boosting the profits of your betting/trading activity. It will be all about home/draw/away tendencies in the major European leagues as well as some goal stats eventually. Follow me on Twitter or Facebook to make sure you don’t miss it. Stay safe and till the next time!

 

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