The Church of Betting

Sports Arbitrage: How to Stay Under the Radar

 

Secret Agent

How to stay under the bookie’s radar

You have probably already read my introductory article to the concept of sports arbitrage. So you already know there is a risk of an arbitrage going wrong and also that bookmakers eventually close arbing accounts. In this article I want to talk a bit more on how one can manage this issue as well as possible.

Prolonging the life of your accounts is one of the most critical skills you must learn as an arber. You must remember that regardless of how well you are executing your arbing strategy and regardless of how strictly you stick to the rules your account will eventually get limited by the soft bookmaker. This is not the case with sharp bookmakers (e.g. Pinnacle, a must have for every arber) and betting exchanges which mostly don’t care whether you are arbing or not.

Unfortunately arbitrages not involving a soft book are a very rare thing. In fact I have placed only one so far in my entire arbing career (if you want to know, it was an E-Sports arb between Pinnacle and SBOBet). This mostly comes from the fact that soft books are not that good in setting odds so sometimes they will get it wrong, which in turn opens an arbitrage opportunity. On the other part of such arbitrage you will most often find a sharp book or an exchange, since they usually offer better odds compared to the soft ones. Sometimes you will find arbs involving two (or more) soft books, but I do not recommend taking those, since this increases the chances of being limited in more than one book, which is obviously not a good thing.

Round Up Stakes

So your main issue is how to not get limited in the soft book. Let us start from stakes. Determining the right amount to bet in order to get the same return regardless of the outcome of an event is fairly easy. Most websites offering sports arbitrage services offer online calculators but I personally do it by hand calculator and believe this is the better and faster way, especially for two-way arbitrage.

However, you must make sure you always bet a round amount in the soft book. Don’t go for a bet of 31,57 just because the calculator tells you so, that’s too obvious. Better start with the amount you would be willing to bet in the soft one, which should be a round one. For example, the soft one offers 2 for under and the sharp one offers 2.03 for the over. You want to bet 50 bucks in the soft one. Then in the sharp you would need 50 * 2 / 2.03 = 49.26. You bet a total of 99.26 for a sure return of 100. You can bet any stake in the sharp book as long as it is allowed – they don’t care.

Bet Size

Regarding stakes, there is another thing one must be careful about – don’t bet too big. Especially on a day when you cannot find as much arbs as you would like to, you might feel tempted to place as much as possible on the first good arb you see. After all even though the stake is high, it is relatively risk free so you feel comfortable with that. The thing is, even if from your point of view it makes sense, from the point of the bookie it does not. They will profile you according to your age, country and maybe some other factors and will have certain expectations regarding the size of your bets. If you go way above that a trader will flag your account. Then he will have a closer look at your betting activity and you are busted.

Obscure Pattern

Another thing you might do is to throw in a few random bets in between your arbitrage ones in order to make it harder for them to see a trend in your betting activities. Better yet, if you are into value betting you might make one of your bets on a game you like somewhere among your arbitrage bets. Mainly you should have some randomness in your betting pattern in order for it to look more like what the bookie wants to see.

Sports Arbitrage

 

Market Focus

So as we already said, your betting activity needs to make sense not only from your perspective, but also from the perspective of the bookie, at least if you are in the business of arbing. You have to do your best to look like a genuine looser (or as bookies like to call it, “recreational bettor”), while still making some money. For example, you can throw a few cents on the casino page, bet a small amount on a combo bet or something similar.

Another way to do that apart from some occasional dump bets or roulette rolls, would be to focus on your native markets while arbing. Betting on lower league games in a country different than yours looks a bit strange. A European betting on American sports and vice versa is also a bit unusual. And so on – use your own judgment. There have been quite a few reports about arbing accounts focused on a particular league and sport lasting way longer than usual. This is certainly a tactic you can use to your advantage.

Social Media

And then you have social media. Especially to the novice arber it would seem weird that the bookies would stalk you on facebook to decide whether to limit you or not, but it is the current year, your personal information is out there and bookies won’t shy away from using it to boost their profits, so you shouldn’t expect them to do anything else. Clear your facebook, twitter, google+ and the like from everything betting related or adjust your privacy settings so that the information is not publicly accessible.

Does that mean you cannot engage in the betting online communities? Definitely not, you just need to be smart about it. Protect your privacy by the tools those websites offer to you and if needed go under a pseudonym when engaging. Do a quick google search of your name, check your facebook from a friend’s profile, etc. If you are responsible enough about it, that should not lead to any problems.

Deposits and Withdrawals

Another way you can attract unwanted attention is with deposits and withdrawals. Sports Arbitrage is very capital-intensive, which means you will need to put in a big amount of money for a relatively small (although sure) profit per bet. It is possible that the amounts you will want to deposit to your bookmaker accounts are above what is typical for your demographics. Therefore you should be extremely careful with deposits. Think about whether the amount you deposit makes sense for a person of your age, country of origin or profession (if you were asked to provide one upon registration). If not, consider depositing less and maybe topping up a bit later. Avoid depositing 4-figure amounts. And preferably start funding your account only after you are finished with account verification.

The rules for withdrawals are similar. Don’t go too high. If you have too much money in that account already consider withdrawing only a part of it and leave the rest for later. Don’t withdrawal too often – in fact it’s best to restrict yourself from withdrawing unless absolutely necessary. For bookies always look much more closely at your account upon withdrawal than upon deposit. It only makes sense – bookies are eager to take your money, but they certainly don’t like giving it back to you.

It is not a question of If, but When

Even when following all these rules most soft books will still be quite fast to spot what you are doing. They have certain tools available that allow them to see, at least retrospectively, which of their odds have offered an arbitrage opportunity. What you should be striving to do is not to avoid the restriction altogether (which is, sadly, not possible), but to postpone it as long as you can in the future.

So there you have the basics. In summary, bet rounded up and moderately big stakes, try to imitate the betting pattern of a mug punter and clean up your social media. If you want to get deeper into the topic of avoiding account limitations you can also check my article on Device Fingerprinting. With respect to arbing, there are still a few topics I would like to cover like the typical risks involved, the tools to get you started and some personal experiences.

But before that I would like to dig in a bit deeper in the topics of value betting and sports trading as well as do some stats articles. So stay tuned for more relevant content and if you have preference for certain topics, please let me know in the comments. And follow me on Facebook and Twitter to get updated on new content, of course not forgetting the necessary precautions outlined above. Thanks for reading and till the next time!

4 thoughts on “Sports Arbitrage: How to Stay Under the Radar”

  1. Hi Kenneth – it depends on how closely you follow the rules and which soft books you are betting on. Some soft books are extremely sensitive to arbers – marathonbet comes to mind as an example. There, regardless of how good you are, you will get limited in no time. In others I had accounts lasting for many months of regular arbing. I would say if you follow the rules you should manage to make at least a couple of hundred AUD/GBP/EUR in most books.

  2. Hey

    If you lose always on the book that can close your account dont help on continue arbing with them, i mean intentionally always try to win on pinnacle

    • Indeed everyone would love it if they won on Pinnacle and lost in the soft book. In fact, every arber has such streaks every now and then and it does feel great to have them. Unfortunately, in the long run, things develop in the opposite direction.

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