This article is the second part of my previous article on Value Betting: The Theory. Check it up if you haven’t yet. At the end of the last article I promised that if you beat the overround you could, at least in theory, be a rich man. Now let’s talk about what it takes to beat the overround, how do you find an edge in the markets and what is Odds Shopping.
The two issues
As I wrote in the first part, you need to beat the market with the overround as a minimum. Well, there are two hardships you will encounter in doing that. First, the market is very efficient in estimating the correct probabilities. To beat it with even a single percentage point you have to be really damn good. There are people like that out there, but without knowing you, the chances that you are one of them are slim.
Second, the overround varies between bookmakers and events, so to improve your chances in beating the overround you have to work with the smallest overround possible. And to achieve that, you will need to place your bet with the best odds (referred to as Odds Shopping). Most of the cases this will be a sharp bookmaker like Pinnacle (a must have whether you are arbing or value betting), but not always. For example you can check the bookmakers that Steve from Daily25 is using – more then half the volume is placed in Pinnacle, but the rest is split among various different bookmakers. This looks a bit tiresome, but it is a necessity when shopping for the best odds around.
The issue of securing the highest odds is getting smaller in time, especially in recent years. I plan to post an article with a historical overround analysis I have made some time ago that clearly shows the global reduction of the overround ever since the online bookmakers were introduced. The more seasoned bettors around here won’t need that article, as you’d know that from experience.
Moreover, another interesting trend I have found is that in recent years the divergence in odds around bookmakers has decreased. In other words, Odds Shopping is providing less and less value to the bettor. So, does this mean the market has gotten more efficient in estimating the true probabilities? This would be one possible explanation. However, there is also the theory that this convergence of opinion comes from the fact that all bookmakers outsource odds calculation to an increasingly smaller pool of odds calculating companies. In other words it is not that everyone is more right, they are just all equally wrong.
Finding an edge
Which brings us back to beating the market in estimating the true probabilities, which is really the main challenge. This is where your knowledge in statistics, mathematics, and above all in football, the sport we all love so much, comes into play. This is also where it gets interesting – shopping for odds is a mentally demanding task with a lot of administrative work involved. Taking a side in a game on the other hand is fun and we all like to do it from time to time, regardless whether money is being involved or not.
So there you go. Solve those two problems and you will make money from Value Betting, and you will make a lot. I just recently started wrestling with Problem 1 by posting my tips in the tipster website bettingexpert.com. Have a look at my tips if interested, I invest many hours of work at them every week and they are absolutely free at this point.
If you have any thoughts on the subject, I would be happy to chat about that in the comments. Also, I would appreciate if you follow me on Facebook and Twitter – in this way you will always be informed about the latest content in the Church. Thanks for reading and see you around!