League of Betting Legends

My previous article dealing with the favourite-longshot bias got a very interesting comment from a reader, who shared some alternative rules to quantify the bias. I recommend everyone interested in the topic to give them a look. They are certainly worth a further analysis and a comprehensive comparison with the rule explained in the article, however … Read more

Arbing without a Hedge: The Insanity of Betting Variance

The question whether it wouldn’t be better to skip hedging in Sports Arbitrage has been asked before. Covering your arb in a sharp book is a sort of an insurance premium. You sacrifice the money you are going to lose in the sharp books in order to have a stable and predictable profit from each … Read more

Home and Away Value in European Leagues (Mid-Season Review)

As promised in my last article, I will do a short mid-season  review of some home and away betting strategies I have discovered at the beginning of this season in European football leagues. If you recall my two articles on home and away value, I have found out that for the Spanish, Italian and German leagues, … Read more

Evaluating Tipsters – T-test

In my last article where I’ve interviewed Erik from SoccerBetBlog on how he gets to figure out Estonian football games I promised to give you an article outlining a simple method to evaluate the performance of tipsters, based only on a few simple to obtain metrics. It is all about a statistical method called the … Read more

Betting Exchanges Review

Betting Exchanges are a necessary tool in the arsenal of every bettor. You would need them not only for trading but also for arbitrage to expand your variability on the sharp side and for value betting to be able to get the best odds on the market. However not all exchanges are made equal and you … Read more

Does Away Value Persist?

You have probably already read my analysis on the topic ‘Does Home Value Persist’. In it I have found out that for 6 top European leagues on average if backing a team at home was a profitable strategy in the previous season it will probably remain profitable in this one as well. This effect was … Read more

Value Betting: Does Home Value Persist?

This weekend is lacking serious action in the major football leagues due to the upcoming World Cup qualifiers during the week (which are not exactly my cup of tea). Therefore I sat down and, after finalizing my tips for next weekend’s league games (which I needed to prepare in advance since I’m going on vacation, … Read more