League of Betting Legends

My previous article dealing with the favourite-longshot bias got a very interesting comment from a reader, who shared some alternative rules to quantify the bias. I recommend everyone interested in the topic to give them a look. They are certainly worth a further analysis and a comprehensive comparison with the rule explained in the article, however … Read more

Review of Trademate (revised)

I am sure some of you remember that a long time ago I promised you a review of a betting product known as Trademate. The Trademate team has given me access to the product and I have been tirelessly gathering tones of betting data ever since. Having collected a record of more than 11,500 resolved bets I decided … Read more

Arbing without a Hedge: The Insanity of Betting Variance

The question whether it wouldn’t be better to skip hedging in Sports Arbitrage has been asked before. Covering your arb in a sharp book is a sort of an insurance premium. You sacrifice the money you are going to lose in the sharp books in order to have a stable and predictable profit from each … Read more

Maximising Profits – How to Improve Your Turnover

Maximising Profits in Sports Arbitrage So you are already up and running. You got familiar with the main risks and pitfalls and even managed to score a few profitable arbs without getting limited (yet). It is time to think about maximising profits with the capital you have available. Your arbing profit is in reality your employed … Read more

Sports Arbitrage: Getting Started

I figured out it has been long since I have last written about Sports Arbitrage and I wanted to correct that. This week I want to give you some information on getting started with Sports Arbitrage and what are the tools you are going to need. The article will link back to some of my … Read more

Home and Away Value in European Leagues (Mid-Season Review)

As promised in my last article, I will do a short mid-season  review of some home and away betting strategies I have discovered at the beginning of this season in European football leagues. If you recall my two articles on home and away value, I have found out that for the Spanish, Italian and German leagues, … Read more

Arbitrage betting: Middles

I had many of my accounts restricted due to arbitrage betting during the years. Luckily, I have found out a live betting strategy to utilize those restricted accounts to the maximum and made some extra money out of them even after being restricted to 10-15 EUR profit per bet. A low risk-strategy (perhaps comparable to … Read more

Does Away Value Persist?

You have probably already read my analysis on the topic ‘Does Home Value Persist’. In it I have found out that for 6 top European leagues on average if backing a team at home was a profitable strategy in the previous season it will probably remain profitable in this one as well. This effect was … Read more

Value Betting: Does Home Value Persist?

This weekend is lacking serious action in the major football leagues due to the upcoming World Cup qualifiers during the week (which are not exactly my cup of tea). Therefore I sat down and, after finalizing my tips for next weekend’s league games (which I needed to prepare in advance since I’m going on vacation, … Read more

Goal Stats: How The Market Goes Against Intuition

Goal stats Today I wanted to share with you one of the interesting observations I have made when researching European goal data from the last ~20 seasons regarding goal statistics. As some of you might know, the average number of scored goals in the last rounds of the season increases dramatically for just about every … Read more